FPL Gameweek 3 Preview — First XI, Captaincy Verdict, Transfer Thesis & The Differential Nobody Has Thought Of
Greetings, pupils, and welcome back. I would normally begin with some sort of warning about not getting carried away after one good Gameweek, but after scoring 119 points last weekend I have decided that rules are for people who scored fewer than 100. The Savant had a rather enjoyable Saturday and Sunday, largely because Bruno Fernandes returned the favour for the faith shown in him and produced 46 points with the captain’s armband safely attached to his name. I told you to captain him, he delivered, and I shall now be accepting compliments until further notice.
It was not just Bruno either. All of my strikers returned, Calafiori chipped in with 11 points, and suddenly the decision to roll the transfer from Gameweek 1 looks rather clever. Funny how that happens. While some of you were furiously changing half your squad because somebody blanked, the Savant sat on his hands and watched the points roll in. There is a lesson in there somewhere, although I appreciate that lessons are generally easier to understand when they come with 119 points attached to them.
The First XI
There is not much reason to start meddling with a team that has just produced 119 points, so the changes this week are fairly straightforward. Verbruggen comes off the bench and gets the nod between the sticks, while Mosquera drops out of the starting XI because I am increasingly uncomfortable with his minutes. With Konsa in the picture, there is just enough uncertainty there for me to decide that I would rather not spend Saturday afternoon refreshing the team sheet and hoping for the best.
Ajer comes in as the safer option and that is really the extent of the defensive tinkering. The temptation after a big Gameweek is to start trying to improve everything, but sometimes you have to recognise when the team is doing exactly what you asked it to do. We are not here to win the transfer market. We are here to score FPL points.
The Captaincy Verdict
إيرلينغ هالاند | Manchester City | £15.5m
After last week’s Bruno masterclass, I am going back to Haaland for the armband. I appreciate the irony of this given that I spent most of the previous lecture explaining why you should trust your judgement rather than simply following the crowd, but this is not about following the crowd. It is about looking at the fixture, the player and the ceiling and deciding that Haaland is still the most obvious route to a monster haul.
Manchester City have Coventry at home and Haaland is exactly the sort of player you want when a fixture looks capable of getting out of hand. He does not need much encouragement to turn a comfortable afternoon into a four-goal contribution, and I have no intention of being the clever idiot who leaves him un-captained only to spend Sunday watching him dismantle somebody while my mini-league rivals send me screenshots of their scores.
Bruno stays firmly in the conversation after what he did last week, but the armband goes to Haaland. He has earned the right to be the obvious choice, and sometimes the obvious.
The Transfer Thesis
Now we get to the interesting decision. Cherki for Mbeumo is the move that keeps presenting itself, and I completely understand the attraction. Cherki has started to look extremely interesting and Manchester City’s fixture against Coventry makes him even more tempting. The problem is that I am not convinced we need to make the move simply because it is there.
The question is whether Cherki is worth bringing in for essentially one particularly attractive fixture. Mbeumo is hardly dead weight, and we have already seen how quickly things can change in FPL. One player scores heavily and suddenly everyone wants him; the next week somebody else scores and the same people are selling him before the final whistle has finished echoing around the stadium.
That is not how I want to play the game.
The beauty of rolling the transfer last week was that it gave us flexibility this week, but having flexibility does not mean we have to spend it. Cherki is a very attractive option and I would have no problem owning him, particularly if the move fits naturally into the squad. But if I have to force the transfer simply to get him in for one fixture, I am not convinced the upside is enough to justify it.
So for now, the Savant is keeping the powder dry. If Cherki delivers, I will happily accept that I may have missed the boat. If he blanks, I shall naturally pretend that this was the masterplan all along.
The Differential
Diego Dalot | Manchester United | £5.0m
This is where things get interesting. Everyone loves telling you that they have found a differential, only for you to discover that the player is owned by 14% of the game and is already sitting in every second team in your mini-league. That is not a differential. That is a player with a slightly inconvenient ownership percentage. So let me give you one that actually interests me: Diogo Dalot.
He is the sort of pick I like because there is a reasonable route to points without having to perform mental gymnastics to justify it. Manchester United travel to Everton and Dalot gives you exposure to the United defence while also offering the possibility of something at the other end of the pitch. He gets forward, he is involved, and at his price point he does not need to produce miracles to make the pick worthwhile.
Of course, he could do absolutely nothing. That is rather the point of a differential. If there were a guarantee attached to him, everyone would own him and we would be discussing somebody else. But if United keep a clean sheet and Dalot picks up an attacking return, suddenly that small ownership number starts looking rather attractive.
I am not saying he is going to score 15 points. I am saying that if you want somebody who can give your rank a little nudge in the right direction without simply copying the template, he is worth a look.
حكم «الخبير»
So there we are. Gameweek 2 was an extremely satisfactory reminder that sometimes the best FPL move is the move you do not make. We rolled the transfer, Bruno delivered 46 points as captain, every striker returned and Calafiori added 11 more to the pile. Somehow, without spending the week rearranging the furniture, we ended up with 119 points.
This week is therefore about resisting the urge to ruin a good thing. Verbruggen comes into the XI, Mosquera drops because of the minutes concern with Konsa lurking, and Ajer gets the nod. Haaland takes the armband after Bruno’s heroics last week, while Cherki remains the big transfer temptation.
The question is whether Cherki for Mbeumo is actually worth doing for one game. Right now, I am not convinced. If the transfer presents itself naturally, fine. If you have to contort the entire squad to make it happen, leave it alone. We have a long season ahead and I would rather have a transfer available next week than spend it because everyone on FPL Twitter has suddenly decided that Cherki is the second coming.
As for the differential, Dalot is the one I am watching. Low ownership, attacking potential and a fixture that could provide something for United. He may do nothing and make me look like an idiot, but that is a risk I am prepared to take.
After 119 points last week, however, I am feeling considerably more confident about my ability to spot the difference between a good idea and a terrible one.
Now take your seats, stop making transfers for the sake of making transfers and try to remember who told you about Bruno before he scored 46 points.
The Savant remembers.
الدرس قائم.
أقوم بالتحليل على انفراد. يجب عليك التصفح بهذه الطريقة أيضاً. قم بتأمين اتصالك بـ سيرف شارك.
قد تكون بعض الروابط في هذه المقالة روابط تابعة. إذا قمت بالنقر عليها وقمت بالشراء، فقد نحصل على عمولة دون أي تكلفة إضافية عليك.
