FPL Gameweek 4 Preview — First XI, Captaincy Verdict, Transfer Thesis & The Differential Nobody Has Thought Of
Greetings, pupils, and welcome back.
Last week I spent the opening paragraph accepting congratulations after scoring 119 points. This week I would like everyone to forget that I ever claimed to understand Fantasy Premier League.
The Savant scored 41 points in Gameweek 3, which was ten points below the overall average of 51. Apparently the universe had decided that one week of smugness was sufficient. I am supposed to be the expert here, so naturally the most responsible thing to do is examine exactly where it went wrong, make the necessary corrections and then behave as though this was all part of the curriculum.
The frustrating thing is that the captaincy was not the problem. Haaland scored the winner against Coventry and produced a perfectly respectable return. The damage came from almost everywhere else. Bruno Fernandes followed his 23 point Gameweek 2 explosion with two points, João Pedro managed one at Arsenal and Kevin Schade produced absolutely nothing against Sunderland, failing to register a single shot despite playing the full 90 minutes. Dominic Calvert-Lewin also returned one point, although his blank was more unfortunate because Leeds created chances and he was twice denied by Verbruggen.
The really irritating part is that I cannot even blame bad luck entirely. After writing last week’s preview and specifically warning everyone about chasing transfers because the crowd had decided somebody was essential, I proceeded to do exactly that. I sold Mbeumo for Cherki.
More than 2.1 million managers bought Cherki for Coventry at home, making him the second most transferred-in player for a Gameweek in FPL history. Naturally, I joined them. Cherki returned three points. Mbeumo, meanwhile, scored at Everton. Four hundred thousand managers made that exact switch, so at least my humiliation was communal.
So there is our lesson. Sometimes a bad Gameweek is not the result of one catastrophic decision. Sometimes ten perfectly reasonable little decisions simply form a queue and kick you in the teeth.
The First XI
At the back, Ezri Konsa joins Calafiori and Ajer. Mosquera leaves the squad and Konsa comes in after making his first full Arsenal league start against Chelsea, where he picked up two defensive contribution points. Arsenal travel to Sunderland this weekend and, given their defensive record, I am very happy doubling up with Calafiori rather than continuing to worry about Mosquera’s minutes.
The midfield becomes Morgan Rogers, Bruno Fernandes, Rayan Cherki and Diego Gómez. Tzolis drops to the bench, which means I am resisting the temptation to squeeze every midfielder into the team simply because I paid money for them.
Up front it is João Pedro, Haaland and Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
Calvert-Lewin was originally heading towards my bench, but then he went to Stamford Bridge in the Carabao Cup and scored against Chelsea. I realise one cup goal does not suddenly turn him into prime Ronaldo, but strikers are confidence creatures and I am not benching one immediately after watching him put the ball in the net. Leeds host Newcastle on Monday night, so he gets another examination.
The Transfer Thesis
There are two moves I want this week:
Kevin Schade to Morgan Rogers
Cristhian Mosquera to Ezri Konsa
And crucially, Cole Palmer is not coming in.
Palmer is an excellent pick. Let us establish that before somebody screenshots this paragraph after he scores 17 points against Hull. He scored twice in Chelsea’s ridiculous 6-3 Carabao Cup win over Leeds and Chelsea have an outstanding run of fixtures beginning this weekend.
But I already own João Pedro, and Rogers gives me another route into that Chelsea attack for considerably less money.
Rogers has produced an attacking return in all three Premier League Gameweeks, something only he and Cody Gakpo have managed among midfielders and forwards. Then he came off the bench against Leeds in midweek and supplied four assists as Chelsea turned a 2-0 deficit into a 6-3 win. He is not simply a fixture punt. He is involved in everything at the moment.
The more controversial decision is keeping Bruno.
Managers are understandably selling him ahead of Manchester City, but I am not spending £12m on Bruno Fernandes and then running away the moment the fixture turns red. This is still the player who scored 235 FPL points last season and, since Michael Carrick took charge, has been one of the most productive assets in the game. After City, United face Fulham, Tottenham, Leeds and Bournemouth over the following four Gameweeks.
So Palmer stays outside the gates for now. We bank on Bruno creating, Rogers gives us Chelsea coverage and I refuse to make another transfer because the internet has collectively shouted at me. I have tried that strategy once already this season.
If I have two free transfers, I make both moves. I would not take a four-point hit simply to force the double-up. If there is only one transfer available, Palmer comes first.
The Captaincy Verdict
João Pedro | Chelsea | £7.7m
This feels slightly uncomfortable because Haaland is sitting there glaring at me, but FPL occasionally requires us to do something other than attach the armband to the enormous Norwegian and leave the room.
Chelsea host Hull. Manchester City travel to Old Trafford.
Hull deserve considerably more respect than the words “promoted side” normally attract, but Chelsea’s attacking ceiling is enormous and João Pedro remains the most owned player in the game for good reason. The official FPL Scout even identified Chelsea’s home meeting with Hull as one of the standout early opportunities for João Pedro and Palmer.
So I am going João Pedro captain, Haaland vice.
It could end terribly. That has never stopped us before.
The Differential
Diego Gómez | Brighton | £5.0m
Sometimes the differential nobody has thought of is already sitting on your bench.
Gómez is owned by just 4.9% of managers, costs £5.0m and has quietly collected 13 points from the opening three Gameweeks. He has two assists, has played 265 of a possible 270 minutes and has accumulated 0.65 xG and 0.70 xA. Now Brighton travel to Coventry.
He is not Palmer. He is not going to dominate your timeline on Saturday morning. Nobody is making a 14-minute YouTube video entitled WHY YOU NEED DIEGO GÓMEZ RIGHT NOW.
Excellent.
That is precisely why I like him. Instead of spending another transfer hunting for something clever, I already own a £5.0m midfielder with secure minutes, genuine attacking involvement and a favourable fixture. He comes off the bench and into the First XI.
The Savant occasionally learns from his own lectures.
The Savant’s Verdict
Gameweek 3 was grim. 41 points against an average of 51 is not what one expects from a man calling himself The Savant, particularly seven days after marching around with 119 points and demanding academic recognition.
But the underlying picture is not disastrous. Haaland returned. Calvert-Lewin had chances. Bruno remains an excellent FPL asset. What Gameweek 3 exposed was that too much of the midfield was depending on players with limited ceilings, and Gameweek 4 gives us an opportunity to correct that.
Rogers gives us the Chelsea fixture without forcing Palmer into the team. Konsa strengthens the Arsenal defensive double-up. Gómez gets Coventry. Calvert-Lewin stays in the XI after scoring in midweek, and João Pedro gets the captaincy against Hull.
Forty-one points were below average.
The Savant has reviewed the evidence, marked his own paper and reluctantly awarded himself a D. Fortunately, there is another exam on Saturday.
Class is in session.
I analyse in private. You should browse that way too. Secure your connection with Surfshark.
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