TL;DR: Calvert-Lewin is the £6m standout, Pedro the best £7.5m option, and Gyökeres the high-upside punt. £8m+: Haaland is the captaincy king, Watkins is the forgotten gem, Isak has huge upside, and Thiago brings goals + penalties.
The 25/26 FPL season presents a fascinating problem for the discerning forward purchaser. There are bargains, there are semi-premiums, and there is Erling Haaland, who costs approximately the GDP of a small nation but may also captain your team every other week. Your tuition this season is therefore simple: we shall divide the forwards into two categories. The affordable, and the obscenely expensive. Let us begin.
The Best £6.0m–£7.5m FPL Forwards
Savant Cliff Notes Calvert-Lewin for the numbers, Pedro for the popularity, Gyökeres for the upside.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | Leeds | £6.0m
Let us start with the rather obvious one. Calvert-Lewin scored 14 Premier League goals last season, the highest total among forwards currently costing £6.0m. His underlying numbers were even better, with 15.57 xG, good enough for third among all players in the league. He also has penalties and appears secure for minutes. He does play for Leeds after all, where his competition is ACTUAL AIR. This is beginning to look suspiciously like value.
The question is not whether Calvert-Lewin can score goals. Clearly he can. The question is whether you believe he can repeat the opportunity. At £6.0m, you don’t need a golden boot contender. You need a forward who starts games, takes the important kicks and occasionally remembers where the net is. Calvert-Lewin ticks all three boxes. He is currently the player in this bracket who requires the least imagination.
João Pedro | Chelsea | £7.5m
Pedro is the fashionable one, which immediately makes me nervous. FPL managers have apparently decided that 24 attacking returns last season, a reasonable price and a pre-season hat-trick constitute sufficient evidence to put him in more than half of all squads.
There is plenty to like. Chelsea have no European football this season, Pedro has already demonstrated he can produce, and £7.5m is hardly extortionate for a forward with that kind of potential. The slight inconvenience is that he doesn’t shoot nearly enough. His shot volume dipped below one per 90 last season, which is rather like employing a baker who doesn’t particularly enjoy bread. Add uncertainty over his exact role and the fact that he isn’t first choice for penalties, and the ownership starts to look a little enthusiastic. I like Pedro. I just don’t trust 50 percent of FPL managers to all be right at once.
Viktor Gyökeres | Arsenal | £7.5m
Gyökeres managed 14 goals last season in considerably fewer minutes than Pedro, which is the sort of efficiency that makes you sit up slightly straighter. Not that I saw a single one. Nor did anybody for that matter. He does have the additional benefit of playing for the actual champions though, which tends to be useful when your primary objective is scoring Fantasy Premier League points.
The catch, naturally, is minutes. Arsenal have alternatives, some fella whose name rhymes with Bavertz, and paying £7.5m for a player whose starting role isn’t completely guaranteed is quite the dangerous little game. If Gyökeres becomes first choice, his ceiling is enormous. You are effectively buying access to the centre-forward of one of the league’s strongest teams at a price that doesn’t quite reflect the potential. The Savant approves. The Savant does not approve of uncertainty. The Savant is conflicted.
Jean-Philippe Mateta | Crystal Palace | £6.5m
Mateta has somehow survived several transfer rumours, a failed move and the general FPL manager’s instinct to become bored with players who quietly score goals. He has reached double figures in each of his last three Premier League seasons, which is precisely the sort of consistency that gets overlooked because it isn’t particularly exciting.
That makes him useful. At £6.5m, Mateta doesn’t need to become a superstar. He simply needs to keep doing what he has been doing. If he starts regularly, he is an obvious candidate for managers looking to downgrade from a more expensive forward later in the season. He may not make you feel clever on Saturday morning. He may, however, still have 15 points when you check your team on Sunday. And that’s pretty sweet.
Other budget forwards poking around..
Solanke is the intriguing one. His minutes were limited to 997 last season, but we have already seen him produce a 19-goal Premier League campaign. If he can secure regular minutes, the underlying talent is there. The question is whether his body and his manager agree.
Šeško is another to monitor closely. Eleven goals from only 1,630 minutes last season suggests genuine efficiency, and a nailed starting role at £7.0m could make him extremely difficult to ignore. Igor Jesus has also caught the eye during pre-season, although Chris Wood remains a sizeable obstacle. Evanilson is the slightly nerdier pick: six goals from 10.64 xG suggests he left plenty on the table last season, while still finishing with 13 attacking returns. If the finishing improves, the price becomes interesting.
The Best £8.0m+ FPL Forwards
Savant Cliff Notes Haaland is the captain, everyone else is auditioning.
Erling Haaland | Man City
There is a school of thought that says Haaland is too expensive. This school is technically correct. He is too expensive if you are assessing him purely as a forward.
Unfortunately, FPL is not purely about forwards.
Haaland is also a captaincy machine. That changes the equation. If you believe he is likely to receive the armband in a large majority of Gameweeks, you aren’t spending the money solely on his goals. You are buying access to a captain who can destroy a rank in approximately 90 minutes. You can build a beautiful squad without him. You can also spend the entire season watching him score while explaining that your midfield is “better balanced”. Pupil, don’t be that person.
Alexander Isak | Liverpool | £9.0m
Isak is the fascinating gamble. His previous Premier League campaign produced 23 goals, so we already know the ceiling. The concern is that last season gave us very little evidence of what he can do in his new surroundings, with just 694 minutes and three goals.
There are reasons for optimism. Ekitike’s absence should give Isak a clearer route into the XI, while Salah’s departure potentially opens up penalty responsibility. At £9.0m, however, you are paying for the future version of Isak rather than the recent evidence. That is a considerable investment, but if everything clicks, he could become one of the season’s defining forwards.
Ollie Watkins | Aston Villa | £8.0m
Watkins has entered that dangerous FPL territory where everyone remembers he was good, but nobody seems particularly interested in owning him.
He still scored 16 goals and supplied four assists last season. More importantly, we have already seen him produce at an elite FPL level, including a 37-return campaign. Players don’t suddenly forget how to be good because the community finds a new toy. At £8.0m, Watkins feels like the sort of player who could spend six weeks being ignored before scoring twice and triggering the most predictable mass transfer of the season. You can wait for that to happen, or you can simply get there first. Revolutionary concept, I know.
Igor Thiago | Brentford | £8.0m
Thiago is perhaps the most interesting statistical puzzle of the group. Twenty-two goals last season is an outstanding return, although eight came from penalties. That naturally raises the question of whether he can repeat it.
The answer may depend on how many penalties Brentford earn, but even removing the spot-kicks leaves 14 open-play goals. That’s plenty. He also offers something extremely valuable: minutes. Thiago is a reliable 90-minute option and carries penalty responsibility, giving him a route to points that some of the other premium forwards don’t have.
There is one warning. His goals were heavily concentrated against weaker opposition, with half of his total coming against Everton and the relegated teams. That doesn’t make the goals worth less, obviously. It does make his fixture-dependent potential worth considering. Thiago may be excellent. He may also be a player you want to deploy selectively rather than blindly every week.
The Savant’s Verdict
At £6m, Calvert-Lewin is the obvious starting point. Go higher and Pedro has the ownership and the pedigree, while Gyökeres has perhaps the biggest upside if his minutes are secure. Mateta is the dependable alternative, with Šeško and Solanke waiting patiently for an opportunity.
Above £8m, the equation is simpler. Haaland is the captaincy premium. Isak is the high-risk, high-reward proposition. Watkins is the forgotten asset. Thiago is the numbers-based wildcard.
The Savant has gone for Isak, Watkins and Gyokores but that doesn’t mean you should too. Except for the fact that you should. Obviously.
Your forward line does not need to be clever. It needs to score points.
This is FPL, however, so naturally we shall make it much more complicated than that. Your seasonal tuition is complete. Choose wisely, ignore pre-season hat-tricks, do not panic when your striker blanks, and above all else, remember the first rule of Fantasy Premier League: the player you sell will score.
Class is in session.
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